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Global automobile production is expected to exceed 100 million vehicles in 2021

Release time:

2017-08-18

IHS全球视野名下的汽车行业研究机构IHSAutomotive周四公布的一份报告指出，全球汽车行业将会在未来七年时间中有爆炸性增长，预计到2021年时候的年产量会突破1亿辆，其中中国将占据这一增幅的一半。 IHSAutomotive的报告指出，随着整个行业从全球经济衰退的影响中复苏，到2021年的时候，全球汽车年产量会相比目前增加2100万辆，至1.06亿辆。全球汽车产量预测主管马克-福尔索普（M

A report released Thursday by IHS Automotive, the automotive research arm of IHS Global Insight, indicates that the global automotive industry will experience explosive growth over the next seven years, with annual production expected to surpass 100 million units by 2021, with China accounting for half of this increase.

The IHS Automotive report indicates that global annual auto production will increase by 21 million units to 106 million by 2021 as the industry recovers from the global economic downturn. Mark Fulthorpe, global automotive production forecast manager, noted, "The industry is undergoing a global transformation as emerging markets reshape the market balance and mature markets face pressure to downsize."

　Global automakers are actively investing, believing that the rise of the middle class in emerging markets will offset the decline in the European market. However, the slowdown in economic growth in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) has raised concerns within the automotive industry about potential oversupply due to previous transformations.

　The IHS report points out that China, the world's second-largest economy, will account for half of the 21 million increase in production over the next seven years, while North America and Europe will also be key drivers. On the other hand, production in Japan and South Korea will decline due to the shift of OEM production overseas.

Mark Fulthorpe added that overcapacity in China and other new Asian countries is also an industry concern. He noted, "If we look at China and new Asian countries, we see announcements of significant capacity increases, especially as global OEMs seek to further expand in these markets." He emphasized, "Will this be a long-term threat for each factory? If the market does not meet the expected growth rate, then it will be."

　While the report names Europe as a growth region, IHS also points out that this market will have a slow start due to slowing demand in Russia and Turkey, with production growth in 2014 limited to 1%.

　The report predicts that this situation will change in 2015, with European production growing by 4% between 2015 and 2017. This acceleration in growth will be driven by a recovery in domestic demand and continued increases in exports to the US and Chinese markets.

Following significant losses during the recession of the past few years, economic improvements in Spain and Italy will contribute half of the growth in Western European market production by 2021. However, the study also points out that the share of the Western European market in total European production will fall from 70% currently to 50% by 2021.

Denis Schemoul, European vehicle production forecast manager at IHS Automotive, said, "European automakers will face significantly different demand environments depending on their varying risk exposures in different parts of Europe."